Everton, Leeds United and Leicester City are the three golf equipment heading into the ultimate day of the Premier League season unsure about being there once more subsequent yr.
Only Southampton have already been confirmed as going through the drop to the Championship, however from solely a few months in the past the place at the least 9 sides had been at risk of taking place, it’s now simply two from three who will finish the weekend in despair.
Sean Dyche’s aspect are within the driving seat after incomes a late, late level towards Wolves final outing, however whereas survival stays in their very own palms, one win of their final ten matches doesn’t precisely provide a lot of a assure that they’ll get the job executed.
Ahead of the ultimate fixtures, it’s Everton in seventeenth and security on 33 factors, Leicester on 31 and Leeds additionally on 31 – however with an inferior aim distinction to each of these above them. Perhaps importantly, all three sides are at dwelling for his or her final outing; of the trio, it’s Leeds who’ve the perfect file on their very own turf this time period – however the Foxes have taken most factors from the final three on dwelling soil.
Here’s what every of the three golf equipment have to survive, and what each permutation will imply on the ultimate day of 2022/23.
Final day fixtures (Sunday, 4:30pm BST)
Everton vs Bournemouth (fifteenth) – stay on Sky Sports
Leeds vs Tottenham (eighth) – stay on BT Sport
Leicester vs West Ham (14th) – stay on Sky Sports
If Everton win
We’ll begin with the apparent and straightforward one: a victory for Sean Dyche’s aspect towards the Cherries renders every little thing else irrelevant.
Everton can’t end any larger than seventeenth, however 36 factors would make them uncatchable by both of the opposite two. So an Everton win means they survive, whereas Leicester and Leeds go down.
If Everton lose
Before turning our consideration to the potential for ending stage on factors, right here’s the state of affairs if the Toffees are crushed by Bournemouth.
First and foremost, Leicester and Leeds have to win. If both membership fail to take three factors from their very own matches, they’re down and Everton keep up.
If certainly one of them does win and Everton lose, Everton will likely be relegated and whichever certainly one of Leeds and Leicester claimed victory will keep up, the opposite goes down.
If each Leeds and Leicester win, Everton are down in nineteenth and Leeds will likely be relegated in 18th on aim distinction…until they in some way win by 9 objectives greater than Leicester do. So if the Foxes triumph 1-0, Leeds have to turn into the first-ever Premier League-era membership to safe a 10-0 victory to outlive on objectives scored. It feels an unlikely mixture of occasions.
If Everton draw
Here’s the place it will get extra tough.
One level for Dyche’s aspect leaves them on 34. Again, if both Leeds or Leicester fail to win, they’re relegated no matter the rest, so solely victories there’ll probably have an effect on issues. Everton survive if neither of the others win.
So, if Everton draw, Leicester win and Leeds don’t win: Leeds will likely be down in nineteenth, Everton will be a part of them within the Championship ending 18th. Leicester surive on aim distinction.
If Everton draw, Leeds win and Leicester don’t win: Leicester are nineteenth and relegated and the final spot will go to aim distinction. Everton are on -24 forward of the weekend and a draw retains them on the identical, so Leeds (presently -27) have to win by three objectives to remain up on objectives scored. They are effectively forward of Everton in that regard (47-33) so if we exclude ridiculous situations reminiscent of an Everton 18-18 draw, any three-goal win on this permutation will maintain Leeds up.
If Everton draw and each Leeds and Leicester win: It’s Leicester who keep up right here and survive from a three-way aim distinction combat. Not that it’ll matter a lot to both of them since they’ll be down regardless, however the order of Leeds and Everton will depend upon if Leeds win by three, as within the earlier permutation.
What Everton want: To win their very own sport, or for Leicester and Leeds to each not win.
What Leicester want: To win, and for Everton to not win.
What Leeds want: To win and Everton lose, or to win by three if Everton draw. Leicester should additionally not win in both situation.
Odds on avoiding relegation
*Accurate as of 24 May