Days after retaking energy in Afghanistan final August, the Taliban pledged that the nation would by no means once more grow to be a haven for worldwide jihadis.
“We assure the international community, and especially the US and neighbouring countries, that Afghanistan will not be used against them,” mentioned the group’s spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid at a press convention after toppling the western-backed authorities.
Those assurances have been upended by the revelation {that a} US drone strike killed al-Qaeda’s veteran chief Ayman al-Zawahiri at a protected home within the coronary heart of Kabul over the weekend.
The US alleges the 71-year-old Egyptian, who was believed to be sick, lived within the capital with the data of the Haqqani community, a militant Taliban faction that holds senior posts within the Afghan authorities and has longstanding ties to al-Qaeda.
The assassination marked a major blow to the Taliban, shattering the remoted regime’s efforts to construct belief with international powers and achieve worldwide legitimacy. Washington’s skill to strike solely blocks away from the Taliban’s new ministries has made its management look weak in entrance of their militant base, mentioned analysts.
Zawahiri’s demise additionally revealed the endurance and longevity of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Though diminished after a relentless 20-year battle, the group stays a much bigger long-term menace than Isis’s more-active Afghan offshoot, in accordance with the UN.
“The conventional wisdom was that al-Qaeda was done and dusted . . . But we’ve all gotten a rude shock. The Taliban were hosting al-Qaeda’s top leadership much like the pre-9/11 years,” mentioned Asfandyar Mir, an knowledgeable on the US Institute of Peace. This means that the Taliban “were very committed to al-Qaeda and wanted to protect and shield this organisation.”
It was from Taliban-ruled Afghanistan that al-Qaeda, then led by Osama bin Laden, orchestrated the September 11 assaults on the US, triggering the American-led invasion in 2001. Many of its senior management and members continued transferring out and in of Afghanistan because the Taliban fought towards Washington’s relentless counterinsurgency marketing campaign.
Among them was Zawahiri, who helped discovered al-Qaeda within the late Nineteen Eighties after Arabs joined the battle to battle Russia’s occupation of Afghanistan.
He took over after the US killed bin Laden in neighbouring Pakistan in 2011. But whereas remaining the group’s figurehead, consultants mentioned Zawahiri appeared to have much less involvement in operations in recent times as al-Qaeda grew to become extra of an umbrella organisation, with largely autonomous associates unfold throughout Africa, South Asia and the Middle East specializing in native targets slightly than world jihad.
As a part of a 2020 peace deal that paved the best way for the US withdrawal, the Taliban agreed that al-Qaeda and “those who pose a threat to the security of the United States and its allies have no place in Afghanistan”.
Yet worldwide displays have repeatedly uncovered proof that al-Qaeda remained within the nation, because the Taliban appeared to attempt to present the group sanctuary whereas conserving a lid on its actions.
A report submitted to the UN Security Council final month alleged that lots of of al-Qaeda operatives have been within the nation and even famous Zawahiri’s “increased comfort and ability to communicate” to members because the Taliban’s takeover.
The US knew of Zawahiri’s protected home within the Kabul neighbourhood of Sherpur as early as April, in accordance with American officers, confirming his location by a number of sources and even recognizing him on the balcony a number of occasions. He was killed by two Hellfire missiles on Sunday.
The operation revealed Washington’s skill to conduct in depth surveillance and assault the centre of the Taliban’s new capital, in a blow to the Islamist regime’s safety equipment.
“The Americans can find Zawahiri, watch him for a few months in central Kabul, then do a drone strike,” Raffaello Pantucci, a senior fellow at Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, mentioned. “That speaks to a fragmented organisation where there’s no coherent protection.”
The Taliban, who deny realizing the whereabouts of al-Qaeda’s management, confirmed the drone strike, however haven’t commented on casualties.
Mujahid, its spokesperson, condemned the strike as “repetition of the failed experiences of the past 20 years and against the interests of the US, Afghanistan and the region”.
It additionally dealt a major setback to the Taliban’s hopes of gaining worldwide legitimacy. Since taking energy, the Taliban have mentioned they wish to have interaction with international powers, together with the west, in an effort to finish crippling worldwide sanctions and revive the financial system.
These efforts, already difficult by insurance policies such because the closure of ladies’ secondary colleges, have been severely undermined, in accordance with analysts.
“This makes any kind of engagement with the Taliban on any issue extremely complicated,” Mir mentioned. “It would be impossible for anyone to take the Taliban’s word on anything from this point onwards.”
Al-Qaeda faces a succession disaster after Zawahiri’s demise, with little details about who would possibly change him.
Antonio Giustozzi, senior analysis fellow at Rusi, the London-based think-tank, mentioned with Isis weakened by counter-insurgency operations, there was the potential for al-Qaeda to “stage a comeback”. But that will rely upon who replaces Zawahiri in what is anticipated to be a troublesome succession course of, he added.
Peter Neumann, professor of safety research at King’s College London, mentioned Saif al-Adel, an Egyptian al-Qaeda veteran, has usually been talked about as a possible successor. But he’s believed to be in Iran beneath some extent of state surveillance.
“If you go beyond Adel, it’s not entirely clear to me who would be who would be the next in line,” Neumann mentioned. “It can’t be someone who is 25 or 30 years old, because it has to be someone who has a sort of certain seniority that is being accepted by some of the very accomplished other regional leaders.”
“For the time being they [the affiliates] are very much not focusing on the west,” Neumann mentioned. “But if conditions change, it could very well, again, become a threat to the west.”
